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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2013 22:29:16 GMT -5
Wait... aren't we still waiting on the Green Light here?
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Post by "The Last King" on Nov 11, 2013 22:34:37 GMT -5
No. he said we can talk at the end of the post.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2013 22:36:18 GMT -5
So he did. I missed that on my first pass. Carry on.
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Post by Maverick on Nov 11, 2013 22:49:25 GMT -5
No I'm serious. Day 1 is the most important day. You learn 80% of what you need to know on Day 1...unless everyone avoids it.
Why the hell do we have a Day 1 if we're not going to use it? When you No Lynch Day 1, you increase the scum's chance of winning. This is a 9 player game, when you allow the game to have an even number of players in the Day phase, you give the scum a higher percentage of winning. Because now they have an extra kill. If we No Lynch today we might as well hand the scum a win.
I can go find the math proofs if you like.
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Post by "The Last King" on Nov 11, 2013 23:07:10 GMT -5
No I'm serious. Day 1 is the most important day. You learn 80% of what you need to know on Day 1...unless everyone avoids it.Why the hell do we have a Day 1 if we're not going to use it? When you No Lynch Day 1, you increase the scum's chance of winning. This is a 9 player game, when you allow the game to have an even number of players in the Day phase, you give the scum a higher percentage of winning. Because now they have an extra kill. If we No Lynch today we might as well hand the scum a win. I can go find the math proofs if you like. Oh. So Day one is 80% of what I need to know? Vote: BenjyThat's what scum would want us to think. I just learned that Day 1 joke votes are inevitable Role received! Also, Mav - isn't the 'alive' list close enough? I learned that people completely disregard the mod post Are you two communicating privately? That looked very conceived. I learned that making absurd assumptions are anything but helpful Ai, I've seen so much dumb shit occur because of the first round of discussion. My usual MO at this eriod is to shut my trap until something actually happens. I learned that great minds think a lot You're forgetting option C) He's just trolling for something to do because most of the time? Day one is duller than Hell. I learned that this point wouldn't apply to a mafia game unless the troller has a lynch wish -----
I just learned a great lot. Can't wait to head into Day 2 with this helpful info that will help me for the entire of the game
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Post by "The Last King" on Nov 11, 2013 23:07:59 GMT -5
EBWOP
Great minds think alike
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Post by Maverick on Nov 11, 2013 23:27:14 GMT -5
Note: I am not claiming knowledge of this set-up...
Anyway 9 players, you'll typically see 2 scum. I say two scum because a good rule is that scum should make up about 25% of the playerlist. 2 is 22% while 3 is a massive 33%.
So you propose we no lynch Day 1 (and then lynch every day after like you want). At the end of Day 1 that's 7 town and 2 scum. Night 1 you have the scum kill. You go into Day 2 with 6 town and 2 scum. Here you have a 25% chance of hitting scum. We mislynch. Night 2 scum kills again. Day 3 there are 4 town and 2 scum, a 33% chance of hitting scum. But now this gamestate is MyLo, so either you lynch anyway, or you no lynch in this situation. The optimal play in MyLo is for a No Lynch (in fact the only time a No Lynch should occur is if the gamestate is in MyLo). In this scenario out of three days we've give town just ONE chance to lynch scum, and only ONE chance to mess to up. Town messes up a 2nd time and it's game over.
Now let's look at the numbers when we lynch every day. I know the biggest argument against lynching Day 1 is that (we might hit town). Yea true. 7 town and 2 scum, you only have a 22% chance of hitting scum. But guess what? A No Lynch gives you 0% chance to hit scum. 22>0. Anyway so we do the right thing and lynch someone. Worst case scenario we lynch a townie, scum kills a townie. We enter Day 2 with a 28.5% chance to nail scum. Okay so we mislynch again. Day 3 we have 3 town to 2 scum. There's a 40% of nailing scum now. More importantly instead of ONE chance to lynch scum, we've giving the town THREE chances to lynch scum. All because we decided to lynch Day 1. Not only that, but because we decided to lynch Day 1, our odds of hitting scum are greater in subsequent days.
With a lynch you also get the benefit of DAY 1 PLAY. Day 1 play gives you INFORMATION. Information we can then use to...A) Analyze on Day 2. How scum vote and how lynches happen are very important. B) Now we can make INFORMED choices with night actions. I can tell based on the responses I'm seeing thus far is that we want to rely on a Cop to tell us who scum are. You would rather the Cop investigate randomly than making an informed decision on who to investigate?
Let's look at some more numbers. 9 players. With no information you're giving the Cop a massive 12% of hitting scum randomly. Now instead we lynch someone. In a nine player game it takes 5 to lynch. Now the playerlist is divided pretty nicely. There were 5 players on the lynch and 3 players off of it. Scum is going to be in one if not both of those groups. Now because of the lynch and because of the INFORMATION, that Cop has a aggregate 53% of randomly finding scum because now he has 7 choices to investigate, which will be divided up into two groups. By Lynching on Day 1 we give the Cop a 40% increase just to randomly find scum! Imagine how better that gets with day play? Now the Cop can go through his reads and make the best decision. If a Cop finds scum, then that leads to a 100% chance of lynching scum the next day.
The tl;dr version of this. If you are town and you don't want to lynch, you are doing a disservice to your win condition.
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Post by Director Callahan on Nov 11, 2013 23:30:13 GMT -5
Note: I am not claiming knowledge of this set-up... Anyway 9 players, you'll typically see 2 scum. I say two scum because a good rule is that scum should make up about 25% of the playerlist. 2 is 22% while 3 is a massive 33%. So you propose we no lynch Day 1 (and then lynch every day after like you want). At the end of Day 1 that's 7 town and 2 scum. Night 1 you have the scum kill. You go into Day 2 with 6 town and 2 scum. Here you have a 25% chance of hitting scum. We mislynch. Night 2 scum kills again. Day 3 there are 4 town and 2 scum, a 33% chance of hitting scum. But now this gamestate is MyLo, so either you lynch anyway, or you no lynch in this situation. The optimal play in MyLo is for a No Lynch (in fact the only time a No Lynch should occur is if the gamestate is in MyLo). In this scenario out of three days we've give town just ONE chance to lynch scum, and only ONE chance to mess to up. Town messes up a 2nd time and it's game over. Now let's look at the numbers when we lynch every day. I know the biggest argument against lynching Day 1 is that (we might hit town). Yea true. 7 town and 2 scum, you only have a 22% chance of hitting scum. But guess what? A No Lynch gives you 0% chance to hit scum. 22>0. Anyway so we do the right thing and lynch someone. Worst case scenario we lynch a townie, scum kills a townie. We enter Day 2 with a 28.5% chance to nail scum. Okay so we mislynch again. Day 3 we have 3 town to 2 scum. There's a 40% of nailing scum now. More importantly instead of ONE chance to lynch scum, we've giving the town THREE chances to lynch scum. All because we decided to lynch Day 1. Not only that, but because we decided to lynch Day 1, our odds of hitting scum are greater in subsequent days. With a lynch you also get the benefit of DAY 1 PLAY. Day 1 play gives you INFORMATION. Information we can then use to...A) Analyze on Day 2. How scum vote and how lynches happen are very important. B) Now we can make INFORMED choices with night actions. I can tell based on the responses I'm seeing thus far is that we want to rely on a Cop to tell us who scum are. You would rather the Cop investigate randomly than making an informed decision on who to investigate? Let's look at some more numbers. 9 players. With no information you're giving the Cop a massive 12% of hitting scum randomly. Now instead we lynch someone. In a nine player game it takes 5 to lynch. Now the playerlist is divided pretty nicely. There were 5 players on the lynch and 3 players off of it. Scum is going to be in one if not both of those groups. Now because of the lynch and because of the INFORMATION, that Cop has a aggregate 53% of randomly finding scum because now he has 7 choices to investigate, which will be divided up into two groups. By Lynching on Day 1 we give the Cop a 40% increase just to randomly find scum! Imagine how better that gets with day play? Now the Cop can go through his reads and make the best decision. If a Cop finds scum, then that leads to a 100% chance of lynching scum the next day. The tl;dr version of this. If you are town and you don't want to lynch, you are doing a disservice to your win condition. |
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Post by Maverick on Nov 11, 2013 23:32:03 GMT -5
Yes lynching me would statistically give the town a bit better chance of winning...but I'm more interested in lynching scum thanks.
What exactly of that do you think is wrong Calalalalalahan?
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Post by Director Callahan on Nov 11, 2013 23:40:21 GMT -5
Yes lynching me would statistically give the town a bit better chance of winning...but I'm more interested in lynching scum thanks. What exactly of that do you think is wrong Calalalalalahan? I too am of the variety that believe Day 1 is entirely a useless day. With no lynch, one town player will die. With a lynch, there's a higher chance that two town players will die than there is of one and a scum player. The numbers don't lie and they spell disaster for you. |
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Post by Maverick on Nov 11, 2013 23:46:18 GMT -5
I just laid out the numbers. If we no lynch today we only get ONE shot at lynching scum. If we lynch today we get THREE shots of lynching scum. Those are the numbers. The lynch is the ONLY kill the majority of the town control. Scum kills don't result in scum deaths. Lynches do. This game is about risks. Do we risk lynching a townie? Absolutely. But we compromise Day 2 and 3 by handing the scum a free kill. ANY day without a lynch results in a free kill for the scum. Unless you believe we've started Day 1 in a Mislynch or Lose state, No Lynch is the sub-optimal play.
It'll probably take a handful of games for me to convince you guys, and that's fine.
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Post by "The Last King" on Nov 11, 2013 23:54:38 GMT -5
So take away all these percents and such and lets ask a simple question; Who is scum? Who are we going to lynch? You? Me? Ash? We don't know! Taking a shot in the dark will ultimately hurt town.
Also, just want to point this out:
While there is a 28% of hitting scum, there is still a 78% of not hitting scum. That is the majority, so I'm not gonna take the risk.
As for Callahan's vote, idk. It was pretty random.
fos: Callahan and Maverick
I don't know who is more suspicious; the person who believes a lynch in the dark and the potential death of a townie is worth the risk, or the person who came out of the shadows with no reasoning behind his vote. Hmmmm.
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Post by "The Last King" on Nov 11, 2013 23:55:50 GMT -5
EBWOP
Nevermind. Damn you guys post fast.
Fos:Mav
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Post by Maverick on Nov 12, 2013 0:09:51 GMT -5
So take away all these percents and such and lets ask a simple question; Who is scum? Who are we going to lynch? You? Me? Ash? We don't know! Taking a shot in the dark will ultimately hurt town. That's why you talk things out on Day 1, so we're NOT taking a shot in the dark. That 22% may seem low, but in a perfect world, out of 100 games you're lynching scum on Day 1 22 times. Now these numbers I posted are as if we played and voted randomly. I don't suggest that. I suggest we make use of our Day 1 discussion so even if we no lynch we still have INFORMATION heading into the night phase. You guys misunderstand, I don't say we take a shot in the dark, I say we use our time to gather information. |
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Post by Diamond Legend on Nov 12, 2013 0:24:48 GMT -5
So lost right now.
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